Roger Federer is not yet thinking about retiring, on the contrary, according to his schedule, the retirement should and could arrive in 2021, when he will be 40 years-old. But is his a right choice? We put aside all the various obligations with various sponsors and brands and think about what happens on the court.
Federer could play for up to 40 years-old without problems. He partially demonstrated it at the Australian Open 2020, where he reached the semifinal lost with Djokovic also due to a groin injury. But there are many considerations to be made.
Federer's main goal is to have fun again and, why not, try to win a Slam tournament. A very difficult goal, but not entirely impossible. Anyway at the Australian Open we have seen many things that would cast doubt. Th Swiss Maestro made it to the semifinals, but his path to the crossroads against Djokovic had no particular opponents.
Yet agianst John Millman and Tennys Sandgren he struggled, having to win matches in the fifth set. In both challenges Roger was very close to defeat. Just think of the seven canceled match-points against Sandgren. My feeling was to see a great tennis player who, if in the third or fourth round had met a tennis player like Dominic Thiem or Alexander Zverev, would probably have been eliminated from the tournament.
He is suffering too much mentally against Djokovic. Situation again highlighted in the first set of the Melbourne semifinal, when the Swiss leaded for 4-1 and 40-0 on Nole's service. On that occasion he had an injury to the groin suffered against Sandgren as a justification, unlike the two match-points that he failed in the 2019 Wimbledon final.
From 2014 onwards Federer and Djokovic played 18 matches and Federer won only 6 of them. Of these 6 victories there is not even one in a Slam. Federer's last victory against Djokovic in a Major dates back to the semifinal of Wimbledon 2012.
Not only: Federer defeated Djokovic only one time in a Slam final, at the US Open 2007, more than 13 years-ago. Djokovic won the last four Slam finals against the Swiss from 2014, three of them at Wimbledon. In the future it will be practically almost impossible for Federer to win a match against Djokovic at the best of five sets, even on the beloved Wimbledon lawns.
Roger can still win a Slam, but his chances would increase significantly if he didn't cross Djokovic's road. Otherwise his is lika a mission impossible.