With Roger Federer skipping the entire clay season, the scenarios for the no. 1 ranking all depend on Rafael Nadal. On Monday the Swiss overtook the Spaniard as the world no. 1 with a lead of 720 points over his rival (8670 vs 7950).
Now Nadal needs to win his first Rome title since 2013 this week to be on the throne again. If it happens, the 31-year-old will have 100 points more than Federer. Otherwise, even if Nadal reaches and loses the final, Federer will be at least 300 points ahead of the Spaniard.
If it happens, Nadal will be no. 2 even if he wins French Open, as he defends 2,000 points of last year's win. The Swiss then needs to defend 2,500 points in Halle and Wimbledon combined and can add another 250 points by winning Mercedes Cup in Stuttgart.
Nadal, instead, has to defend just 180 points as result of his fourth-round exit at the All England Club in 2017.
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Roger Federer has not played a tennis match since March 24th but will return to world No 1 on Monday after Rafael Nadal's defeat in Madrid.
Nadal can reclaim top spot the following week by winning the title in Rome.
— Stuart Fraser (@stu_fraser) 11 maggio 2018